Can a 5 Year Old Beat the Experts - The Finals

So after a conference final in which we differed on the Blues / Sharks series and ultimately our model prevailed, my daughter has continued to remain loyal to her Penguins, who she thinks will be planning their victory parade soon enough. Looks like we agree on this one!    

Can a 5 Year Old Beat the Experts - Round 3

After getting surprised by the Sharks in an anticlimactic game 7 of an otherwise stellar series, my daughter is doubling down and expects them to lose to the Blues this round. In the East, although she's a fan of both the Penguins and Lightning and was reluctant to pick one over the other, when pressed she went […]

Can a 5 Year Old Beat the Experts - Round 2

For those who are following the competition between us and my five year old daughter, the first round was OK for us (5-3), and worse than a coin toss for her (3-5). Here are her picks for Round 2... 1.  Lightning beat Islanders 2.  Penguins beat Capitals 3.  Stars beat Blues 4.  Predators beat Sharks Since […]

Can a 5 Year Old Beat the Experts?

Another year has passed, and my daughter is a year older but not any more interested in the actual game of hockey than she was last year.  However, that need not stop her from having an opinion. And for the first round her picks - which took about 30 seconds to make and involved no math - […]

Why On Net Percentage is Real and Why it Matters

In today’s SI.com piece (http://www.si.com/nhl/2016/02/05/advanced-hockey-stats-shot-attempts-value) we decided to wade into the current controversy over whether or not generating higher quality shots is a repeatable skill.   To further complicate matters we decided to look for something after the fact – in effect indirect evidence that certain teams are generating higher quality shots – rather than […]

Just How Good Are the Montreal Canadiens?

Talk to any hockey fan in Montreal (which means pretty much anyone in Montreal) and they’ll tell you their team is on the cusp of a championship.   They have Carey Price, who, unlike other false prophets with names like Jose Theodore and Cristobal Huet, seems poised to join the ranks of Jacques Plante, Ken […]

Can a 4 Year Old Beat the Experts - The Finals

After a conference final round that went to 7 games but where we emerged triumphant on both series, it appears no matter what happens next we'll be one up on my daughter, who wasn't 100% sold on either team in what is certain to be a close series.   In the end, she picked Tampa […]

Can a 4 Year Old Beat the Experts - Round 3

After a perfect 4-0 last round, it appears my four year old can't agree with us on anything. Now if the Caps had managed to knock off the Rangers, she would have gone Lightning over Caps, but as it stands, she's firmly committed to the Rangers winning that series. Meanwhile, although she initially said both […]

Can a 4 Year Old Beat the Experts - Round 2

For those who are following the competition between us and my four year old daughter, the first round wasn't great for either of us: a 4-4 record, which means we might as well both have been flipping coins. We're hoping to do better this go round, as is she.  Without further ado, here are her […]

The Methodology Behind the SI Predictions

How to predict this year’s playoffs? An interesting question with many potential answers. We didn’t get an opportunity to explain how we came up with the numbers that we did in the SI article itself, so we’ll have to do that here. Hopefully I can explain our methodology clearly even for those without a statistics […]