Comments on: Why do most of the media refuse to get it? (Calgary vs. Edmonton)

By: Andy

Andy — Mon, 27 Apr 2015 21:38:18 +0000

Again, please write another article as to what happened to the stats and why the flames are on to round 2. Please predict that the Ducks will win based on stats, that seems to help the flames.

By: john

john — Wed, 22 Apr 2015 03:33:20 +0000

Seems the media was right

By: Andy

Andy — Fri, 10 Apr 2015 16:00:19 +0000

Any chance you can readdress this story, seeing as how the Flames are in the playoffs now and the oilers are out?

By: John

John — Thu, 12 Mar 2015 16:57:43 +0000

In regards to the media - their job is to keep people watching so negatively talking about how calgary sucks while their still winning over talking about the "comback kids" as they they like to call them this year works out better for them

By: John

John — Thu, 12 Mar 2015 16:53:18 +0000

It looks like this analysis didn't pan out for you - Calgary holding on to a playoff spot and Edmonton last in their conference

By: Andy

Andy — Sun, 08 Mar 2015 20:44:58 +0000

Ijay, I assume you'll do a follow up article at the end of the season to explain the stats of both teams. So far Calgary is not listening to you, being 3rd in their division and all. (Mar 8, 2015)

By: Dan

Dan — Sat, 06 Dec 2014 03:05:58 +0000

I saw an interesting stat today regarding the Flames. Despite a 2-13 stretch last Dec when Giordano was injured, the Flames have earned 98 points in the last 82 games. So they are currently approaching a full season of playing at about 110 point pace. That's more than just puck luck. Advanced stats are interesting but there's more to it than a few data points. For one thing, you just have to watch a few games to realize that the Flames score a lot of goals really quick once they get possession. I'd like to see a stat around that. What's the PDO for a team that moves faster up ice than the other team can get back to defend ? I bet the other goalie isn't stopping 90% on those fast rushes. Conversely, if the team has control for a long time, the other team has plenty of time to collapse in and limit the quality of the scoring chance, even if the that team does get a shot on goal. I bet a team that plays like that will have a lower PDO. Like I said, they're interesting numbers but I get the feeling is pretty half baked at this point.

By: Jeff Watson

Jeff Watson — Fri, 05 Dec 2014 22:29:16 +0000

Thanks for the quick reply.

Here's hoping it holds until at least the second round of the playoffs. Would love to see one of the Western powerhouses fall to the Flames Anomaly!

By: IJay Palansky

IJay Palansky — Fri, 05 Dec 2014 21:48:50 +0000

Yeah . . . no. Let's break this down. There are basically two ways a team can generate more goals than its opponent: (1) outshoot them, and (2) have better quality shots. Whatever "situations" Calgary's "5 man unit" has "overwhelmed" the opposition in would be reflected in their CF%. Calgary's CF% is 29th in the league right now at 43.5%. That's not bad it's awful. CF% is usually a reasonable proxy for game flow, and the flow has been significantly against Calgary. There's just no other way to interpret the fact that Calgary's opponents' CF% is 13 points higher than Calgary's. Which leaves us with the possibility that the Flames' shots are better -- i.e., have a higher probability of going in -- than their opponents. Is it impossible that the Flames have discovered some system that allows them to do so despite having a pretty ordinary (at best) set of offensive talent? No, it's not impossible. But I'd be willing to bet a whole lot that that's not what's going on here. I'll issue a public apology if the Flames maintain a 5v5 sh% above 10% all season. Not. Gonna. Happen. Last year the Avs were 25th in CF% -- at 47.0% and their justification was that they got better shots than their opponents. That was a team with a lot of high-end offensive talent, so it wasn't absurd to think that maybe that was possible. But as most (including Yours Truly) predicted before the season, that justification was more wishful thinking than anything else. Believe me, I get wishful thinking -- I'm a Leafs fan. But believing that the Flames have discovered some magical formula for converting shots into goals isn't based in reality. And yes, that's "logic/analytics." And when it's done correctly it's got a pretty damn good track record relative to the "if you just watched the games you'd realize that the numbers are wrong!" crowd.

By: Tim

Tim — Fri, 05 Dec 2014 21:13:08 +0000

You may need to re examine your criteria, especially in light of the Flames continued success. What your precious logic/analytics cannot comprehend is the shift in tactics that the Flames have employed. No other team has activated their defense the way the Flames have. In many situations it is this 5 man unit that overwhelms the opposition. I think you need to go back to the drawing board instead of offering up lame justifications for your analytics, they don't capture this team any better than they would have the Stampeders 6 pack offense back in the day.