Comments on: More on the Hit Parade: The Good Stuff

By: Jordano

Jordano — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 21:59:05 +0000

Thanks, we'll see how she goes. And I'll check it out. Can't wait to see some more results.

By: Phil Curry

Phil Curry — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 15:04:08 +0000

Hey Jordano, it's good to hear from you! I hope all is going well - and good luck on your exam.

The reason for the switch between hit percentage to differential is exactly what you said - I think it's easier to interpret the effect of a change in the hit differential than the percentage. We originally did everything with percentages, but then reran them with differential for that reason. I actually didn't realize that some of the results posted here were from the percentage regressions.

As for other blogs that use econometrics, the only other one I am aware of is http://rinkstats.blogspot.ca/

It's definitely worth checking out. There are almost certainly others, so if you come across them, let me know!

By: Jordano Tonial

Jordano Tonial — Wed, 16 Apr 2014 09:39:26 +0000

Hey Phil, former student here. I have an applied econometrics exam in a couple days and it's great to see a probit model applied to something I can make sense of. The analysis of the marginal effect here really cleared a lot of things up for me. Any other blogs you know of with heavy econometrics influence?
BTW, I have never seen something control for possession before-very cool stuff.
Any reason why you switched from hit percentage to hit differential between this article and the last one? I know it should end up yielding the same result, but I'm wondering what the cause was. Easier to interpret perhaps?

By: Jakerrr

Jakerrr — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 20:52:33 +0000

Er not a categorical variable

By: Jakerrr

Jakerrr — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 20:50:49 +0000

They correlate very closely come to think of it, so it probably won't have that much of an impact. Although to truly correct for scoring effects you would probably need a categorical variable with the exact time spent tied, with a 1-goal lead, down 1 goal, etc.

By: Phil Curry

Phil Curry — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 19:30:01 +0000

That's a good idea. We'd have to get all the other stats when the score is close as well. I can't promise we'll get to it soon, but I'll see what we can do.

By: Jakerrr

Jakerrr — Mon, 07 Apr 2014 19:18:28 +0000

Can you rerun it controlling for fenwick / corsi close? Score effects might be confounding the relationship.

By: Phil Curry

Phil Curry — Sat, 29 Mar 2014 00:41:17 +0000

You're right about face-offs. This is something that others have noted as well. It's definitely an open question as to what's going on there. The penalties measure is actually penalties drawn. So there is a positive effect of the other team taking more penalties. I probably should have emphasized that a bit more, as I think there probably is something more natural about thinking in terms of penalties taken.

By: Matt Cane

Matt Cane — Sat, 29 Mar 2014 00:31:08 +0000

Am I reading this wrong, or does your regression indicate that more penalties and fewer faceoff wins increase the probability of winning?