Comments on: Analytics Pixie Dust Can't Assume Away Ovechkin's Glaring Deficiencies

By: Eric

Eric — Sat, 02 May 2015 13:34:05 +0000

Interesting argument, but I think that some of your conclusions are off base.
Not going to get into the MVP discussion as much as I want to point a few things out about Ovechkin (and full disclosure, I am a Caps fan.... who has often been critical of his performance in the past).

First, to the argument that Ovi doesn't play defense. At all. Ever. Well, if your coaches name rhymed with Radam Goates, you might be right.
For the defensive question, I'll point to even-strength Fenwick numbers. In the 13-14 season (78 GP), Ovi's FF60-FA60 was -3.74. Like Mike Green, he would usually just watch the puck go by him as he glided around near the blue line.
Fast forward to the 14-15 season, under Trotz, and the numbers over 81 games change significantly. His FF60-FA60 is now 6.15. In the playoffs, so far over 8 games, he is 15.18 (however, we'll see if that changes against the Rangers).
During the 14-15 season, the Caps FF60-FA60 was 2.4. (Haven't figured out where to pull the data to figure out with/without Ovi), and their Fenwick60 diff for the playoffs is -0.3.
To say that Ovechkin is not involved in the total team game this year is simply incorrect.

Second, you correctly point out that the Capitals "do better" when Ovechkin is not on the ice. For even strength play, Ovechkin scored 21 goals during both the 13-14 season and the 14-15 season. So now the question is, what did the Capitals do?
For 13-14, the Capitals scored 135 total even strength goals (114 of them were OTO - Other Than Ovechkin). In 14-15, the Caps notched 148 goals (127 OTO). The 13-14 CF%? 47.7. In 14-15, it is 51.4.
So, all told, the Capitals have become less dependent upon Ovechkin to win games.

Finally, Ovechkin has been more complete on even-strength offense. For example, when the Caps trailed last season (which they did a lot - 57 games), Ovechkin scored 8 goals and notched 3 assists. This season, he dropped to 5 goals in 47 games, but picked up 6 assists. He is still a shooter, but nowadays, he is also creating plays instead of ripping bad shots.

Interestingly, he shot 224 times over 78 games in 13-14, and 220 times in 81 games in 14-15. So, like the goals, his shot performance has been pretty consistent. However, his line has improved from 343 shots in 13-14 to 441 in 14-15. In other words, Ovi is doing other things offensively in addition to shooting.

As you can see, Ovechkin's actual even strength shooting and scoring performance is not different from last year to this year. The difference is that he is participating in the team's defense and making passes.
Trotz said from the get-go, he wants Ovi to "do what he does" when he has the puck. He has. Trotz also told Ovi to "do what [Trotz] wants [Ovi] to do when he doesn't" have the puck. He has.

MVP questions aside, Trotz sprinkled coaching pixie dust on Ovechkin, and the team, as a whole, is benefiting from it.

By: Vance

Vance — Tue, 07 Apr 2015 12:48:42 +0000

Actually, if you look at Ovi 5v5 Close stats it shows he's at a +3.86 on GF% REL, although to be fair, he was at a +0.46 at the date of this post. Also, I'm seeing on hockeyanalysis.com that his GF%RELTM for 5v5 and 5v5 Close indicates he's a +4.0 and +11.7 respectively.

By: IJay Palansky

IJay Palansky — Fri, 03 Apr 2015 01:52:57 +0000

Thanks for the comment clobber. It pains me to admit it with respect to Ovi, but I think you're right. Analytics in general dismisses powerplay stats because it (we) don't quite know how to measure it appropriately yet. But clearly a big chunk of Ovechkin's value comes on the PP.

By: bobclobber

bobclobber — Fri, 03 Apr 2015 01:48:55 +0000

I read this with interest, especially given the recent effusive praise for Ovechkin this season. I follow the argument on 5 on 5 but I am not sure you can make a holistic assertion of value to his team without detailing the special teams contribution (n the case almost exclusively PP).

By: NHL Blog Beat – March 29, 2015 | Spectors Hockey

NHL Blog Beat – March 29, 2015 | Spectors Hockey — Sun, 29 Mar 2015 19:13:04 +0000

[…] THE DEPARTMENT OF HOCKEY ANALYTICS: An examination of the glaring defects in Capitals star Alexander Ovechkin’s game. […]

By: tms71

tms71 — Sat, 28 Mar 2015 04:45:50 +0000

I think you are right, the percentages (on-ice shooting, on-ice save) are volatile and most of the time when they differ significantly from the league norms for a particular guy it is due to bad luck but you are looking at a four season sample here. It's a lot harder to believe that on-ice shooting percentages and save percentages that have been significantly worse than his own team without him on the ice for a four season span are due to bad luck. This would certainly make him an outlier but watching him play his style of play is definitely unique which supports the idea that he is responsible for those bad percentages.

One thing that needs to be mentioned is the enormous value that Ovechkin has on the power play. It makes up for a lot of his 5 on 5 deficiencies.

It's interesting to see Kessel there too as he has been heavily criticized in Toronto by some fans and some of the media but the advanced stats guys are also quick to defend him. He does have disadvantage of not having a legitimate first line center. This is comparing him to his own team while he is off the ice and they are doing better without him again over a four year span so bad luck is an unlikely explanation. Playing with Bozak probably explains some of it.